Introduction

With the rapid development of technology, especially the Internet, and the evolution of consumer behaviour, the television market is currently experiencing very significant changes. Traditional television, while still playing an important role in the life of society, has to adapt to the new reality.

Dynamic technological progress is having a significant impact on the transformations taking place in the television sector. New media not only surround but also extend the traditional medium of television. This phenomenon makes the boundaries between different types of media more and more fluid, leading to an increase in the complexity of the entire mass media system (Sobocińska, 2023). Audiences are no longer directing their attention exclusively to specific devices and are gaining the freedom to choose how they consume media content, regardless of the screen used. Recent years have seen a remarkable development in the technologies delivering video content, while lowering production costs and introducing new monetisation models. This combination of factors is radically changing the media landscape, particularly in the context of the television market. Faced with these changes, traditional TV broadcasters face an urgent challenge they need to review their role, mission, strategy and tactics for market operations. While this seems obvious and used as a standard of operation by most companies in the markets, the media, and in particular the television market, is an extremely complex and dynamic environment where numerous variables affect the current state and future of the industry. These variables are areas including technological innovation in the distribution of video content, evolving viewer preferences, changes in legal and telecommunications regulations, cultural, social and political transformations, and the growing role of television as part of the key infrastructure for each country.

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of dynamic technological progress on the transformations taking place in the audiovisual sector. The study aims to understand how increasing complexities in the mass media system and changes in the way media content is consumed are affecting the traditional TV market, and to identify potential opportunities and challenges in doing so.

The thesis of the article is: With dynamic technological advances, the transformations taking place in the television sector are leading to increasingly fluid boundaries between different types of media, resulting in an increase in the complexity of the entire mass media system and an increase in the number of projected and implemented development strategies.

The following research questions have been posed to verify the thesis:

The paper uses non-reactive research methods, a critical analysis of selected literature, both Polish and foreign, on the television market and a scenario method for the future of the television video market. Envisioning the future by creating different scenarios gives us the opportunity to imagine what the changes resulting from the combination of traditional TV and video might look like. Given that trends from international markets, especially Europe and the USA, also reach Poland, the article will present predictions for the future of television from renowned foreign media experts. Their opinions and analyses provide a holistic view of the direction of the TV market. According to A.H. Jasiński “the scenario method consists of describing a logical and coherent sequence of events to illustrate how the present state of affairs is transformed into a future state. A scenario is a description of the interdependence of factors determining the development of a given situation at a specific time. The relationships between factors can be described in such detail that it is possible to simulate the actual situation” (Jasiński, 1999, p. 113).

The TV market

As technology advances, the media market and television companies are under pressure to constantly evolve. The main objective of this development is to provide customers with access to a diverse range of programmes, which is available on various content distribution platforms. People operating in the market are constantly making choices, which are then assessed in terms of opportunities and potential risks (Styś, 2003).

In the television market, it is possible to identify various actors who play important roles. These include: television broadcasters, television signal distribution operators, regulators and regulatory organisations, content producers and creators, advertisers, media agencies, technology providers and, finally, viewers, for whom the products are made. These different players collaborate and compete in the television market, creating a diversity of content and services available to viewers. Each of these roles is evolving as technology advances. Companies in this industry compete, but sometimes also co- operate in an effort to outperform the competition by providing attractive products that meet the expectations of customers. The ability to compete is based on the development of resources such as content, intra-organisational skills, company structure and other specific assets (Wasilczuk, 2005).

Media concentration and consolidation have been transformed and now play a key role in creating real-time interactive relationships between different types of media and communication technologies (Schiller, 1999). All local, regional and global companies are looking for optimal strategies to efficiently combine different forms of media and build their competitive advantage. The new approach to content distribution closely correlates with technological advances and the digitalisation process, which also has a significant impact on the TV market and the way signals are transmitted. The transition to digital television technology has proved to be a key change that has influenced the development of economies and companies and transformed the way television content is received and consumed (Mączyńska, 2007). In today’s world of digital service convergence, it is important to develop in three key areas (Toffler, 2003):

Both in Europe and around the world, the media market is open to public and private media alike. It includes the provision of audiovisual services, production and distribution of broadcast material. However, there are differences between them, which relate to organisational structures, sources of funding and business objectives (Borowiec, 2007).

According to Robin A. Williams, the primary technical achievement of television is the ability to present events at a distance (Briggs, 2012). Forms of distribution evolve and adapt to new conditions, but the main objective remains (Fidler, 2001).

The definitions of television will help illustrate the changes that have taken place in the market over the years.

Both definitions (A and B) fully capture what television is in practice. For a more complete picture, it seems necessary to add that definition A defines the broadcasting of live programmes and definition B defines the broadcasting of previously prepared material/recordings, i.e. video.

At this level, everything seems obvious, whereas when we try to clarify these definitions to better correspond to the so-called contemporary times, a number of different viewpoints, new definitions and variables emerge that may or may not have an impact on the television market and its future. Thus extending the description of live programmes to include the transmission of TV signals over the Internet (e.g. streaming) may broaden the area of TV market definition to include the Internet. This broadening of the description of the television market is also supported by the addition to definition B of the various forms of reception / distribution – of processed video and audio to electronic / digital signals. In addition to classic TV reception on TV sets, decoders, via satellite dishes and cable networks, we have for many years now been able to watch TV on smartphones, tablets, computers or laptops (Chmielewska, Zawiślińska, 2020). On these media, we can use the so-called VOD platforms using different business models. Among the most common are (Grece 2021, Gudsho 2022): OTT (Over the top), SVOD (Subscription-based Video on Demand), AVOD (Advertising-based Video on Demand) and TVOD (Transactional Video on Demand). The BVOD model (Broadcaster Video on Demand) is also mentioned to describe the platforms that are an extension of linear television broadcasters. A new FAST (Free Ad Supported TV) model has also appeared on the market, which provides free streaming TV financed by advertising. It is becoming increasingly popular. Unlike the AVOD model, FAST focuses on generating advertising revenue. FAST can be divided into two types of content: thematic or niche content and branded content. These programmes are available to users without having to pay subscriptions. What is more, FAST allows access to streaming content such as TV shows and on-demand movies. FAST’s popularity is growing because it does not require registration or paying subscriptions to enjoy free content (Ventuno, 2022).

As can be seen from the above brief analysis

of the definitions, the television market should be considered together with the market for video content offered via the broadly understood Internet. The issue of the availability of video content (no matter whether live or replayed), or simply the distribution of content on various types of end devices used by viewers, becomes crucial for the full definition of the television market. The broadly understood distribution of video content is a very important part of the television market, which has and will continue to have a significant impact on the development of the industry. Already today, many groups of viewers consume television content i.e. video content on a wide variety of devices, and the TV set at home is becoming yet another available screen, which day by day is losing its position as the dominant medium for receiving television or perhaps more reasonably, video content. The development of the Internet has influenced the use of this area by television companies. The Internet is now understood as a comprehensive communication network, encompassing both local and global aspects. Companies, both public and private, need to adapt to new technologies and new opportunities for content distribution and audience interaction in order to be closer to their audiences. The Internet has become a place for social interaction, giving rise to global social media platforms and multifunctional websites (Artz, 2007).

When analysing the TV market, the authors assume two main future scenarios as models for accessing TV content, which will be embedded in dozens of intermediate models.

One of the main models will aim to build its own TV content distribution networks. Starting with maintaining or, where possible, expanding the reach of traditional television broadcasting and building their own digital platforms by broadcasters or expanding the ones they already have. Such a strategy is only possible for the largest players in the TV market and requires significant investment. On the one hand, acquiring new viewers for one’s offer will become more and more expensive due to the number of available video content offers on the market (the effect of market fragmentation and the increase in the cost of reaching viewers with commercial information). On the other hand, attracting viewers to a given broadcaster requires and will require unique and attractive content, and this again is a significant expense at the level of video production or paying for the rights to broadcast attractive live events, e.g. sporting events. As a result of these challenges, TV broadcasters will struggle to maintain their viewer base, which will not be attractive to the viewers themselves, as it will force them to have access to several platforms (often paid access). This kind of coercion on viewers could lead to completely new solutions in accessing video content and new players entering the market in the future.

The second main model for potential market development is to integrate TV/video content offers and offer them in one environment (one technology within the interface, but on multiple devices) at a more attractive price compared to several subscriptions. A single access technology, seen by the viewer as a single interface available on many devices, will also enable easier monetisation for broadcasters through advertisements displayed next to video content (a sort of antidote to the decline in paid subscriptions).

As can be seen from the descriptions above, the boundaries between traditional television and the Internet run, or can run, in many perspectives.

The above issues illustrate that the relationship between traditional television and the Internet is complex and constantly evolving. For broadcasters and the media industry, understanding and adapting to these changes is key to staying relevant and meeting the expectations of an increasingly diverse and demanding audience.

These issues highlight the need to continuously monitor and adapt monetisation and access strategies for video content to meet viewers’ expectations and needs, while providing a sustainable source of revenue for platforms and content providers.

Having generally outlined the scope of the television market and its definition, we can attempt to determine the main variables on which the future development of the industry depends and will depend. At this point we will try to answer the questions posed in point 3 from the introduction to the article.

The main determinants influencing the TV market in Poland or likely to do so in the future include many aspects.

The legal environment, including legal acts and their amendments such as the KRRIT (National Broadcasting Council) Act, Telecommunications Law, DSA (Digital Services ACT), EMFA (European Media Freedom Act), GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), as well as the positions of various regulators such as KRRIT, RMN (National Media Council), UKE (Office of Electronic Communications), UOKiK (Office of Competition and Consumer Protection) and the influence of central offices such as GUS (Central Statistical Office), UODO (Office for the Protection of Personal Data), RPO (Ombudsman for Civil Rights), are crucial in shaping the television market. The activities of market organisations, such as the SFP (Polish Filmmakers Association), and the decisions of the Sejm, the Senate and the Government, for example on the digital tax and the implementation of DSA, play a significant role in shaping the business potential of TV companies. Furthermore, the protection of broadcasters’ copyright is important to maintain competitiveness and innovation.

The impact of the public media on the market is also significant, especially in the context of the government’s actions regarding possible funding models for the public media and the acquisition or sale of state-owned media entities.

The technological environment, including new technologies affecting monetisation models such as DAI¹, FAST (Free Ad-supported Streaming Television), new forms of product placement in video content, content sharing technologies in AVOD models (Advertised Video on Demand), SVOD (Subscription Video on Demand), changes to MUX², the availability of Catch Up³, A la Carte⁴, Time Shifting⁵, as well as recommendation engines available on the market for viewers, are changing the way content is distributed and consumed.

In the business environment, the market for valuing the rights to LIVE events, mainly sporting events, the form of billing to media houses and agencies by broadcasters and the role of operator networks as advertising networks are crucial to the economics of the TV market. The main players in the market, both Polish broadcasters and foreign broadcasters, as well as global digital platforms, influence competitiveness and market strategies.

When analysing the impact on TV companies, audience research cannot be overlooked. Audience measurement standards, changes in the consumption of video content, the debate on the future settlement currency, the collection of data by SDK from video applications, the measurement of data from different sources, as well as the measurement of new audiences, such as Ukrainian citizens, are key to understanding and analysing market trends.

It should therefore be emphasised that the TV market in Poland is shaped by a number of complex determinants. Understanding these factors is key to predicting future trends and directions for the TV market.

The needs of users – viewers

Transferring the availability of TV content to electronic platforms, changing consumer needs and media diversity have influenced the evolution of linear TV viewing behaviour. Nowadays, the image of the “family gathered around the TV” is becoming less and less typical, as every member of the household, while watching TV, simultaneously uses personal mobile devices such as phones, tablets or computers. Traditional TV is giving way to individual mobile devices. People, within reach of these devices, search the Internet for a variety of content or engage in interactions on social media platforms (Gemius, 2023). In order to retain viewers in an era of competition from new media, a renewed understanding of their behaviour, sources of access to TV content, purchase motivations, leisure time, preferences and habits is required. For the TV industry, technological change has always been an opportunity for growth, which requires the search for new distribution methods and innovative ways to access content.

The development of the TV market is closely linked to technological advances, which influence changing user needs and open up new consumer perspectives. This trend will continue as the popularity of mobile devices increases, especially among younger users, who use them as an alternative to traditional TVs. Additionally, a further increase in the popularity of streaming services available on VOD platforms is expected. There is also the potential for consolidation in this sector, which could lead to the emergence of dominant players in the VOD platform market. At the same time, video content consumption ranks third in terms of the amount of time spent on media, meaning that the average user spends more than eight hours a day watching this content (Skorus, 2015).

Today’s viewers have a wide range of options to access a variety of television content, which is significantly transforming the media landscape. Cable TV, satellite TV, NTC/DVB-T2⁶, IPTV, Internet TV and streaming platforms offer an abundance of programmes and content available on demand. Watching programmes on a variety of devices, such as TVs, smartphones and tablets, gives viewers the freedom to choose how to consume TV content, tailored to their individual needs. In addition, the availability of content via the Internet enables easy access to on-demand programmes, which significantly increases the appeal of streaming platforms.

For many viewers, and probably for the majority in the future, the division into watching TV/video content between TV at home and other media is not and will not be important. Here, the dividing line has already disappeared or will disappear (it depends linearly on demographics, i.e. the older the age group, the greater the consumption of content on the TV screen at home). The distribution of TV content across different screens (i.e. with differentiated technologies for broadcasting/playing video content) will have to keep up with the viewer, not the other way around. Broadcasters, together with video content producers, will increasingly face the need to study TV content consumption habits very closely and translate this into points of contact with the viewers (i.e. the availability of their content) in order to monetise their business at the end of the day.

To sum up, from the viewer’s perspective, there are no longer any boundaries between traditional television and the consumption of this content on the Internet (apart from older age groups, of course), and if there are they will gradually disappear, which must translate into changes in the way television broadcasters do business. And what changes on the part of broadcasters might be brought about by the blurring of the boundaries described above between watching TV on a TV screen at home (according to the schedule) and distributing content over the Internet? How are the owners of these media trying to find their way in the face of such changes? To confront this issue, it is crucial to know the preferences in media consumption and, in particular, the behavioural changes on the part of viewers and their approach to video content.

3 Changes in media consumption and future scenarios

Changes in media consumption are monitored in a variety of ways, ranging from nationwide survey panels to focus group research to insights generated by case studies obtained from communication campaigns. From a research perspective, the most reliable verification of changes in media consumption are the so-called established surveys and their updates obtained during subsequent series of research, usually in quarterly cycles. This research is a basic population-based survey of the media market used to assess the consumption of individual communication channels. In the case of the TV market in Poland, such research is conducted by two entities; i.e. the Nielsen company and the National Media Institute (KIM, 2023).

The results and conclusions of the National Media Institute’s study published in 2023 regarding data for the first half of 2023 indicate a decreasing number of paid TV recipients (particularly satellite TV offers), with an increase in terrestrial-only TV users. KIM research also shows that 75% of 60-74 year-olds have Internet access at home and are more likely to use free VOD services for video content. Youtube and other free services are used by 33% of the people in the 60- 74 age group. In contrast, younger age groups (16- 49 years) are far more likely to consume video content online, with 81% of them doing so, and this is a growing trend. 56% of people in the 50-59 age group also consume video content online. At the same time, the vast majority of all households, as many as 95% (according to the KIM survey), have a television set, with 91.6% declaring that they watch TV (traditional TV content). At the same time, 64.8 % of households consume traditional TV content on screens other than the television set (KIM, 2023).

The research results described above support the thesis that traditional television content is consumed both on the TV screen and on other devices (screens) thanks to the access to the Internet. The phenomenon of consuming content through different TV/video sources and thus on different devices is referred to as multi- screening. If we consider issues of preference in video content consumption then one of the key aspects affecting the future of the TV market will be the need for broadcasters and video content producers to “deal” with:

The fulfilment of these two conditions will affect the growth prospects for TV broadcasters, video content producers and technology platforms offering video content.

Delivering video content in the right place and at the right time requires a range of research tools (e.g. established surveys) and inventories (e.g. RPD data, video application data) to monitor viewer behaviour and ongoing changes in video content consumption. In addition, the very development of technology and the associated proliferation of content access points are changing the traditional TV market from an oligopoly towards a market that more closely resembles the operating conditions in the so-called perfect competition. That is, a situation where we have many players on the supply side and many buyers on the demand side. And there are different mechanisms at work in such a market than those to which the major broadcasters, whose position has been unshakable for many years, have been accustomed to and have been able to exploit their competitive advantage in relation to both video content production companies and video content distribution operators, i.e. the distribution of the TV signal. The dominant position of TV broadcasters will shift towards more consolidation projects and business models developed together with key market stakeholders, namely content distributors (operators), video producers and technology platforms. Why? It seems that a holistic approach to the TV market, both from the perspective of key stakeholders and the end viewer, can bring stable development prospects for this industry. It seems that both the right distribution (time and place) and the quality of the content (keeping attention) are necessary conditions for the further development of the TV market, and without cooperation and joint business strategies this may not be feasible (Chmielewska, Kalisz, 2023).

Of course, the above reflections on the future of the television market cannot be devoid of a legal background, i.e. a reference to the legal and telecommunications regulations that affect the television market and its future. Particularly in terms of EU law and the activities of global digital platforms and local TV broadcasters.

Recent years have seen significant changes in the regulation of the media market and especially the television market worldwide. These developments are the result of a growing need to control media content, especially video content. In response to this evolution, many countries have decided to introduce new media industry regulations. Their aim is to increase transparency and balance in the relationship between the various market players and consumers.

They aim not only to monitor media content, but also to ensure that entrepreneurs and content providers operate in accordance with certain ethical and legal standards. They represent an important step towards a better understanding and regulation of this dynamic market. As media content continues to evolve and adapt to changing realities, regulation is playing an increasingly important role in shaping the sector.

There are key legal acts on the Polish media market that play an important role in regulating this dynamic market. Here are some of the key legal documents that shape the media environment:

In recent years, legal regulations of the media market, especially the television market, have undergone significant changes around the world. These developments are driven by the growing need to control content, especially video content, which is available to a mass audience. In response to these challenges, many countries have introduced new legislation to increase transparency and balance the relationship between media companies and consumers. The most important legal acts affecting the media market in Poland are the Constitution of the Republic of Poland of 2 April 1997, the Broadcasting Act of 29 December 1992 and the Digital Services Act (DSA). In addition, the media market is significantly influenced by regulations in the area of telecommunications, such as the Telecommunications Act of 16 July 2004 and the European Electronic Communications Code (ECE).

These legal acts constitute key regulatory elements that have had or will have a significant impact on the development and operation of the television market. Within these legal acts, there are common elements and areas of regulation that apply to the operation of television companies. These include issues relating to content control, user profiling, definitions of the digital media market and the responsibility of digital platforms for their online activities.

Legal regulations have and will continue to have a significant impact on the television market and the sources of revenue of companies operating in the industry. As the TV market evolves and adapts to new regulations, media companies need to be aware of these changes and adapt their operations to current legislation, especially in the areas of content, data protection and user rights (Grabowski, 2023).

All the legislation affecting the TV market discussed focuses on protecting the interests of local TV broadcasters and consumers of video content. For European broadcasters, the legislation is aimed at enabling business models that are known from the online market. This is about advertising, which is one of the main sources of revenue in online media.

On the other hand, the large online platforms are subject to regulations that aim to protect the European TV market against the misuse of data for user profiling.

It is worth noting that the development of the television market involves the appropriate collection of data on audience behaviour. In the absence of access to this data, even the highest quality TV content can face difficulties in reaching viewers and thus generating profits. This applies to both national and local broadcasters.

In order to support the development of TV businesses, the legislative and executive authorities in EU countries should cooperate with the broadcasting industry. Initiatives such as the downloading of decoder activity data can benefit the TV market. It is worthwhile to have an ongoing dialogue between the industry and the authorities in order to work out appropriate changes in the legal environment of the television market. Without such initiatives, traditional TV broadcasters may lose the market to online video content distribution, which has a much greater knowledge of its users, giving it an advantage in reaching and maintaining viewers’ attention.

Conclusions

The television market is a dynamic area that is constantly evolving. Changes in technology, audience preferences and competition are forcing traditional broadcasters and modern platforms to adapt. The key to success in this sector is innovation and adaptation to changing market conditions.

The study answered all the research questions, thus confirming the thesis. One of the most important trends in the TV market is the rise in popularity of streaming services or the FAST Channel. They give viewers the opportunity to watch content on demand, without the need for a strict timeframe. These are challenges for traditional TV broadcasters, who have to adapt their offers to this trend. Technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated in analysing audience behaviour. This allows streaming platforms and TV services to provide personalised content and recommendations. This, in turn, is transforming the experience of watching TV, as viewers can receive offers tailored to their tastes and preferences.

Gaining viewers in a world of streaming giants requires not only technological innovation, but also investment in original content. Film and TV series productions created by streaming platforms are winning critical acclaim and capturing the attention of audiences. This raises a challenge for traditional broadcasters who have to compete for market share. Smartphones and tablets have become a constant companion in many people’s lives. This makes the consumption of TV content more mobile. Viewers can watch their favourite programmes while traveling, at a bus stop or in a queue at the store. At the same time, many people use social media while watching TV, which is known as multitasking. This is a challenge for broadcasters who need to adapt their content to this changing mode of consumption.

Legislation also has a significant impact on the television market and the sources of revenue of companies operating in the industry. They focus on protecting both TV broadcasters and consumers of video content. They give European broadcasters the opportunity to introduce new business models, especially in the area of advertising. In the case of large online platforms, there are regulations in place that aim to protect the European television market against the excessive use of data for user profiling.